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West Adelaide vs Adelaide Raiders — South Australia NPL 2026

West Adelaide
West Adelaide
FT
2 – 7
Adelaide Raiders
Adelaide Raiders
3/23/2019South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 5Elite Systems Football Centre (Adelaide)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

West Adelaide40%
×Draw22%
Adelaide Raiders37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Adelaide
1.81
Adelaide Raiders
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 54 away

creates per match

West Adelaide
1.56
Adelaide Raiders
1.59

allows per match

West Adelaide
1.89
Adelaide Raiders
2.07

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par
Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Adelaide Raiders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw
63%
West Adelaide or Adelaide Raiders
78%
Draw or Adelaide Raiders
60%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+
21%
Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals
84%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
54%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
27%
Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals
82%
Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals
52%
Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)
52%
Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

Adelaide Raiders away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 1.56 + Adelaide Raiders defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.81

Adelaide Raiders attack 1.59 + West Adelaide defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Adelaide scores more
40%
level
22%
Adelaide Raiders scores more
37%

West Adelaide at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: West Adelaide 2–7 Adelaide Raiders

Adelaide Raiders beat West Adelaide 7-2 in South Australia NPL on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Elite Systems Football Centre (Adelaide).