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Adelaide Raiders vs West Adelaide — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Raiders
Adelaide Raiders
FT
4 – 1
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
7/6/2019South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 16Croatian Sports Centre (Adelaide)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Adelaide Raiders48%
×Draw23%
West Adelaide28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Raiders
1.77
West Adelaide
1.31

Adelaide Raiders creates 35% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 29 away

creates per match

Adelaide Raiders
1.38
West Adelaide
1.00

allows per match

Adelaide Raiders
1.63
West Adelaide
2.17

finishing

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Raiders ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Adelaide Raiders or draw
72%
Adelaide Raiders or West Adelaide
77%
Draw or West Adelaide
52%

Winning margin

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+
26%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals
53%
Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals
26%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
73%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
38%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)
63%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Raiders at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Raiders attack 1.38 + West Adelaide defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

West Adelaide attack 1.00 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adelaide Raiders scores more
48%
level
23%
West Adelaide scores more
28%

Adelaide Raiders at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Adelaide Raiders 4–1 West Adelaide

Adelaide Raiders beat West Adelaide 4-1 in South Australia NPL on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Croatian Sports Centre (Adelaide).