Ajaccio 1–2 RED Star FC 93: Result & Stats

Ajaccio

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

RED Star FC 93

4/8/2016

Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade François Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ajaccio44%

×Draw28%

RED Star FC 9327%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchRED Star FC 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.93

Ajaccio

1.28

RED Star FC 93

0.93

Ajaccio creates 38% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 53 away

1.14

creates per match

1.08

0.77

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ajaccio

1.14

RED Star FC 93

1.08

allows per match

Ajaccio

0.77

RED Star FC 93

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

RED Star FC 93 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

73%

Ajaccio or RED Star FC 93

72%

Draw or RED Star FC 93

56%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

20%

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

72%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

37%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

14%

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

61%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

24%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

62%

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.14 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.08 + Ajaccio defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ajaccio scores more

44%

level

28%

RED Star FC 93 scores more

27%

Ajaccio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff