RED Star FC 93 2–0 Ajaccio: Result & Stats

RED Star FC 93

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ajaccio

2/6/2017

Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Jean-Bouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

RED Star FC 9340%

×Draw29%

Ajaccio31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RED Star FC 93Expected goals in this matchAjaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.04

RED Star FC 93

1.21

Ajaccio

1.04

RED Star FC 93 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 104 away

1.17

creates per match

0.76

1.33

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

RED Star FC 93

1.17

Ajaccio

0.76

allows per match

RED Star FC 93

1.33

Ajaccio

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw

69%

RED Star FC 93 or Ajaccio

71%

Draw or Ajaccio

60%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

17%

Ajaccio wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

70%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

34%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

12%

Ajaccio 1+ goals

65%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

28%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

56%

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.17 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ajaccio attack 0.76 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more

40%

level

29%

Ajaccio scores more

31%

RED Star FC 93 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RED Star FC 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff