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RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ajaccio
Ajaccio
S. Renel 3'
8/26/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade de Paris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

RED Star FC 9340%
×Draw29%
Ajaccio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RED Star FC 93
1.21
Ajaccio
1.04

RED Star FC 93 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 104 away

creates per match

RED Star FC 93
1.17
Ajaccio
0.76

allows per match

RED Star FC 93
1.33
Ajaccio
1.24

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par
Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw
69%
RED Star FC 93 or Ajaccio
71%
Draw or Ajaccio
60%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
17%
Ajaccio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
70%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
34%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
12%
Ajaccio 1+ goals
65%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
28%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
56%
Ajaccio (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.17 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ajaccio attack 0.76 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more
40%
level
29%
Ajaccio scores more
31%

RED Star FC 93 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RED Star FC 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
J. AnzianiAjaccioAjaccio · M
7.7

Match Events

3'
S. Renel↳ H. Benali
18'
F. Dembi← J. Eickmayer
59'
T. Jabol-Folcarelli← M. Puch-Herrantz
67'
A. Badji← D. Durand
67'
D. Durivaux← F. Doucouré
72'
M. Soumano← C. Ibayi
72'
A. Touré← V. Jacob
83'
C. Vidal← A. Bamba
83'
T. Mangani← J. Anziani
86'
A. El Hriti← S. Renel
87'
J. Escartin← B. Mendy
90+2'
Aliou Badji
90'
Loic Kouagba
90+2'
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro
90+1'
Jesah Ayessa
90'
Clement Vidal

Possession

42%RED

Shots

5RED

Pass accuracy

48%RED

Statistics

REDAjaccio
Overview
42%Possession58%
5Total Shots17
2Corners8
14Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots17
2On Target2
2Off Target9
1Blocked6
3Inside Box6
2Outside Box11
Passing
42%Possession58%
368Total Passes508
296Accurate Passes438
80%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides5

Match Recap: RED Star FC 93 vs Ajaccio

RED Star FC 93 beat Ajaccio 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 26, 2024.

Goals: S. Renel (3').

Ajaccio controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade de Paris in Saint-Ouen.