Watford 2–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland

T. Dele-Bashiru 84' (pen)

F. Ebosele 28'

W. Isidor 49'

9/28/2024

Championship · Round 7Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Watford42%

×Draw28%

Sunderland30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.05

Watford

1.28

Sunderland

1.05

Watford creates 22% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 10 away

1.29

creates per match

0.89

1.22

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Sunderland

0.89

allows per match

Watford

1.22

Sunderland

1.27

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Watford-0.10scores less

Sunderland+0.01on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Watford or draw

70%

Watford or Sunderland

72%

Draw or Sunderland

58%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

19%

Sunderland wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

72%

Watford 2+ goals

37%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Sunderland 1+ goals

65%

Sunderland 2+ goals

28%

Sunderland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

58%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 47 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Sunderland defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sunderland attack 0.89 + Watford defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Watford scores more

42%

level

28%

Sunderland scores more

30%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

F. Ebosele

Watford · M

7.9

Match Events

28'

F. Ebosele↳ Y. Larouci

30'

Festy Ebosele

45'

Jobe Bellingham

49'

W. Isidor↳ P. Roberts

57'

T. Ince← E. Kayembe

57'

K. Sema← Y. Larouci

57'

R. Porteous← F. Ebosele

64'

Ryan Porteous

69'

D. Jebbison← V. Bayo

74'

K. Baah← G. Chakvetadze

74'

N. Rusyn← W. Isidor

74'

I. Poveda← P. Roberts

84'

T. Dele-BashiruPenalty

85'

T. Watson← R. Mundle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordSunderland

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots17

1.89Expected Goals (xG)1.01

4Corners6

11Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots17

5On Target5

4Off Target7

4Blocked5

12Inside Box10

1Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

408Total Passes405

330Accurate Passes348

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.40Goals Prevented0.40

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Championship: Watford 2–1 Sunderland

Watford beat Sunderland 2-1 in Championship on September 28, 2024.

Goals: F. Ebosele (28'), W. Isidor (49'), T. Dele-Bashiru (84' pen).

Sunderland controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Sunderland — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 2–1 Sunderland