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Sunderland vs Watford — Championship 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Watford
Watford
4/29/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 45Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sunderland48%
×Draw28%
Watford23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.32
Watford
0.82

Sunderland creates 61% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.25
Watford
1.04

allows per match

Sunderland
0.61
Watford
1.39

finishing

Sunderland+0.13scores more
Watford-0.02on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
77%
Sunderland or Watford
72%
Draw or Watford
52%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
23%
Watford wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
73%
Sunderland 2+ goals
38%
Sunderland 3+ goals
15%
Watford 1+ goals
56%
Watford 2+ goals
20%
Watford 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
68%
Watford (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.61 · 8 matches

Watford away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.25 + Watford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Watford attack 1.04 + Sunderland defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sunderland scores more
48%
level
28%
Watford scores more
23%

Sunderland at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Watford

Sunderland and Watford drew 2-2 in Championship on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.