Watford 1–0 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

4/27/2024

Championship · Round 45Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Watford39%

×Draw28%

Sunderland33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.11

Watford

1.25

Sunderland

1.11

Watford creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 11 away

1.30

creates per match

0.99

1.24

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Watford

1.30

Sunderland

0.99

allows per match

Watford

1.24

Sunderland

1.19

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Watford-0.08on par

Sunderland+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Watford or draw

67%

Watford or Sunderland

72%

Draw or Sunderland

61%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

17%

Sunderland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Sunderland 1+ goals

67%

Sunderland 2+ goals

30%

Sunderland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

55%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.30 + Sunderland defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sunderland attack 0.99 + Watford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Watford scores more

39%

level

28%

Sunderland scores more

33%

Watford at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff