Watford 2–2 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sunderland

L. O'Nien 62' (OG)

K. Davis 34'

J. Bennette 87'

A. Alese 45'

9/17/2022

Championship · Round 11Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Watford40%

×Draw27%

Sunderland33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

Watford

1.31

Sunderland

1.15

Watford creates 14% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 40 away

1.29

creates per match

1.14

1.16

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Watford

1.16

Sunderland

1.32

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Watford-0.02on par

Sunderland-0.01on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

67%

Watford or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

60%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

18%

Sunderland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

73%

Watford 2+ goals

38%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Sunderland 1+ goals

68%

Sunderland 2+ goals

32%

Sunderland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

55%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Sunderland defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Watford scores more

40%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

33%

Watford at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

A. Alese

Sunderland · D

7.7

Match Events

34'

45'

59'

61'

62'

L. O'NienOwn goal

63'

A. Diallo← E. Embleton

73'

V. Bayo← H. Kamara

73'

J. Bennette← J. Clarke

73'

79'

79'

81'

84'

C. Kabasele← C. Cathcart

87'

J. Bennette↳ P. Roberts

88'

Jewison Bennette

90+5'

Jay Matete

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordSunderland

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots12

8Corners3

8Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target5

6Off Target4

3Blocked3

9Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

469Total Passes367

371Accurate Passes261

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls6

0Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Watford vs Sunderland

Watford and Sunderland drew 2-2 in Championship on September 17, 2022.

Goals: K. Davis (34'), A. Alese (45'), L. O'Nien (62' o.g.), J. Bennette (87').

Watford controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Sunderland — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs Sunderland