Watford 1–0 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

M. Britos 59'

4/1/2017

Premier League · Round 30Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Watford42%

×Draw26%

Sunderland33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.27

Watford

1.46

Sunderland

1.27

Watford creates 15% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 72 away

1.21

creates per match

0.92

1.61

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Sunderland

0.92

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Sunderland

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Watford or draw

67%

Watford or Sunderland

74%

Draw or Sunderland

58%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

20%

Sunderland wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

77%

Watford 2+ goals

43%

Watford 3+ goals

18%

Sunderland 1+ goals

72%

Sunderland 2+ goals

36%

Sunderland 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

56%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Sunderland defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sunderland attack 0.92 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Watford scores more

42%

level

26%

Sunderland scores more

33%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

C. Cathcart

Watford · D

8.5

Match Events

42'

D. Janmaat← Y. Kaboul

53'

I. Success← N. Amrabat

59'

M. Britos↳ C. Cathcart

61'

D. Ndong← D. Gibson

70'

W. Khazri← A. Januzaj

72'

77'

78'

87'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordSunderland

Overview

56%Possession44%

23Total Shots11

13Corners9

12Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots11

10On Target3

5Off Target2

8Blocked6

15Inside Box3

8Outside Box8

Passing

56%Possession44%

387Total Passes302

318Accurate Passes208

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0