Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Watford vs QPR — Championship 2025

Watford
Watford
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
QPR
QPR
L. Kjerrumgaard 23', 19'
K. Morgan 45'
8/16/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Watford40%
×Draw28%
QPR32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.23
QPR
1.06

Watford creates 16% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 39 away

creates per match

Watford
1.24
QPR
0.97

allows per match

Watford
1.15
QPR
1.23

finishing

Watford+0.00on par
QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Watford or draw
68%
Watford or QPR
72%
Draw or QPR
60%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
17%
QPR wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
71%
Watford 2+ goals
35%
Watford 3+ goals
13%
QPR 1+ goals
65%
QPR 2+ goals
29%
QPR 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
56%
QPR (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

QPR away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.24 + QPR defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

QPR attack 0.97 + Watford defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Watford scores more
40%
level
28%
QPR scores more
32%

Watford at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. KjerrumgaardWatfordWatford · F
8.2

Match Events

19'
L. Kjerrumgaard↳ N. Irankunda
23'
L. Kjerrumgaard↳ I. Louza
40'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
45'
K. Morgan
46'
R. Kolli← P. Smyth
56'
K. Baah← N. Irankunda
61'
Esquerdinha← A. S. Mbengue
61'
J. Varane← N. Madsen
65'
Edo Kayembe
70'
R. Kone← R. Burrell
74'
M. Doumbia← L. Kjerrumgaard
74'
R. Andrews← M. Bola
79'
Karamoko Dembélé
81'
Z. Celar← K. Dembele
86'
T. Dele-Bashiru← E. Kayembe
90+3'
Imrân Louza

Possession

46%Watford

Shots

17Watford

Pass accuracy

49%Watford

Statistics

WatfordQPR
Overview
46%Possession54%
17Total Shots13
2.06Expected Goals (xG)0.50
2Corners4
9Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots13
4On Target3
9Off Target6
4Blocked4
8Inside Box5
9Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
402Total Passes461
331Accurate Passes393
82%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
0.26Goals Prevented0.26
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Watford vs QPR

Watford beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on August 16, 2025.

Goals: L. Kjerrumgaard (19', 23'), K. Morgan (45').

QPR controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.