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QPR vs Watford — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
L. Dykes 77'
J. Livermore 65', 60'
1/14/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

QPR41%
×Draw29%
Watford30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.23
Watford
1.00

QPR creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 30 away

creates per match

QPR
1.19
Watford
1.04

allows per match

QPR
0.97
Watford
1.28

finishing

QPR+0.03on par
Watford+0.06on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

QPR or draw
70%
QPR or Watford
71%
Draw or Watford
59%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
18%
Watford wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
71%
QPR 2+ goals
35%
QPR 3+ goals
13%
Watford 1+ goals
63%
Watford 2+ goals
26%
Watford 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
58%
Watford (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.97 · 9 matches

Watford away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.19 + Watford defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Watford attack 1.04 + QPR defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

QPR scores more
41%
level
29%
Watford scores more
30%

QPR at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. LivermoreWatfordWatford · M
8.5

Match Events

5'
Sam Field
20'
Jake Livermore
23'
Kenneth Paal
39'
Jack Colback
45'
Wesley Hoedt
49'
Tom Dele-Bashiru
60'
J. Livermore↳ Matheus Martins
65'
J. Livermore↳ Y. Asprilla
69'
R. Porteous← Matheus Martins
69'
M. Rajović← Y. Asprilla
69'
M. Pollock← J. Livermore
70'
P. Smyth← I. Chair
70'
E. Dixon-Bonner← J. Colback
77'
L. Dykes
85'
A. Dozzell← S. Field
85'
Z. Larkeche← J. Clarke-Salter
85'
T. Ince← R. Healey

Possession

56%QPR

Shots

16QPR

Pass accuracy

51%QPR

Statistics

QPRWatford
Overview
56%Possession44%
16Total Shots9
1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.46
8Corners4
17Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots9
7On Target2
7Off Target3
2Blocked4
12Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
441Total Passes378
379Accurate Passes310
86%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
17Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: QPR vs Watford

Watford beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on January 14, 2024.

Goals: J. Livermore (60', 65'), L. Dykes (77').

QPR controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.