Watford 2–3 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

QPR

João Pedro 50'

K. Sema 27'

A. Adomah 70'

C. Willock 34'

I. Chair 18'

8/27/2022

Championship · Round 6Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Watford42%

×Draw28%

QPR30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Watford

1.25

QPR

1.00

Watford creates 25% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

1.29

creates per match

0.79

1.21

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Watford

1.29

QPR

0.79

allows per match

Watford

1.21

QPR

1.22

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Watford-0.05on par

QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Watford or draw

70%

Watford or QPR

72%

Draw or QPR

58%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

19%

QPR wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

QPR 1+ goals

63%

QPR 2+ goals

26%

QPR 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

59%

QPR (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + QPR defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

QPR attack 0.79 + Watford defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Watford scores more

42%

level

28%

QPR scores more

30%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Chair

QPR · M

7.7

Match Events

18'

I. Chair↳ S. Johansen

27'

K. Sema↳ João Pedro

31'

Y. Asprilla← R. Manaj

34'

40'

44'

45+4'

50'

61'

70'

80'

S. Armstrong← I. Chair

81'

Seny Dieng

82'

V. Bayo← Mario Gaspar

84'

Hassane Kamara

85'

Andre Dozzell

88'

O. Kakay← C. Willock

88'

C. Masterson← S. Johansen

90'

Christian Kabasele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordQPR

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots10

1Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target5

4Off Target2

3Blocked3

8Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

486Total Passes350

386Accurate Passes262

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1

Match Recap: Watford vs QPR

QPR beat Watford 3-2 in Championship on August 27, 2022.

Goals: I. Chair (18'), K. Sema (27'), C. Willock (34'), João Pedro (50'), A. Adomah (70').

Watford controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs QPR — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs QPR