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Watford vs QPR — Championship 2018

Watford
Watford
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
T. Deeney 52' (pen)
A. Adomah 90'
C. Austin 73'
2/1/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Watford43%
×Draw28%
QPR28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.27
QPR
0.97

Watford creates 31% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 59 away

creates per match

Watford
1.29
QPR
0.78

allows per match

Watford
1.16
QPR
1.26

finishing

Watford-0.02on par
QPR+0.08on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Watford or draw
72%
Watford or QPR
72%
Draw or QPR
57%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
19%
QPR wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
72%
Watford 2+ goals
36%
Watford 3+ goals
14%
QPR 1+ goals
62%
QPR 2+ goals
25%
QPR 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
60%
QPR (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + QPR defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

QPR attack 0.78 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Watford scores more
43%
level
28%
QPR scores more
28%

Watford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
Y. BarbetQPRQPR · D
7.9

Match Events

33'
Lee Wallace
52'
T. DeeneyPenalty
54'
Francisco Sierralta
67'
K. Sema← W. Hughes
67'
A. Gray← João Pedro
67'
C. Willock← S. Johansen
73'
C. Austin↳ C. Willock
82'
A. Adomah← I. Chair
82'
C. Kelman← C. Austin
83'
B. Wilmot← J. Ngakia
83'
P. Zinckernagel← N. Chalobah
89'
G. Thomas← M. Bonne
90'
Marc Navarro
90'
A. Adomah↳ T. Kane

Possession

44%Watford

Shots

10Watford

Pass accuracy

47%Watford

Statistics

WatfordQPR
Overview
44%Possession56%
10Total Shots13
7Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots13
4On Target5
4Off Target5
2Blocked3
8Inside Box10
2Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
371Total Passes458
271Accurate Passes371
73%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Championship: Watford 1–2 QPR

QPR beat Watford 2-1 in Championship on February 1, 2021.

Goals: T. Deeney (52' pen), C. Austin (73'), A. Adomah (90').

QPR controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.