Watford 0–2 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

J. Coburn 81'

F. Azeez 69'

1/17/2026

Championship · Round 27Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw28%

Millwall35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.12

Watford

1.17

Millwall

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.30

creates per match

1.17

1.07

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Watford

1.30

Millwall

1.17

allows per match

Watford

1.07

Millwall

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Watford or draw

65%

Watford or Millwall

72%

Draw or Millwall

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

16%

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

69%

Watford 2+ goals

33%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Millwall 1+ goals

67%

Millwall 2+ goals

31%

Millwall 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

52%

Millwall (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.30 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Millwall attack 1.17 + Watford defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

28%

Millwall scores more

35%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Azeez

Millwall · M

8.2

Match Events

45+4'

Hector Kyprianou

46'

M. Langstaff← C. De Norre

49'

54'

66'

66'

66'

N. Irankunda← O. Maamma

66'

A. Emakhu← T. Ballo

67'

J. Coburn← M. Ivanovic

69'

F. Azeez

71'

Camiel Neghli

80'

V. Semedo← L. Kjerrumgaard

80'

K. Baah← H. Kyprianou

80'

81'

87'

89'

89'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordMillwall

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots13

0.54Expected Goals (xG)1.57

4Corners4

7Fouls22

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target4

3Off Target8

3Blocked1

3Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

413Total Passes317

327Accurate Passes232

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.51Goals Prevented0.51

Discipline

7Fouls22

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Watford vs Millwall

Millwall beat Watford 2-0 in Championship on January 17, 2026.

Goals: F. Azeez (69'), J. Coburn (81').

Watford controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs Millwall