Millwall 2–3 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Watford

D. Watmore 88', 74'

M. Rajović 90'

G. Chakvetadze 55'

E. Kayembe 22'

8/10/2024

Championship · Round 1The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Millwall41%

×Draw27%

Watford32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.12

Millwall

1.32

Watford

1.12

Millwall creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 25 away

1.30

creates per match

1.03

1.21

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Millwall

1.30

Watford

1.03

allows per match

Millwall

1.21

Watford

1.34

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Millwall+0.20scores more

Watford+0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

68%

Millwall or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

59%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

38%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Watford 1+ goals

67%

Watford 2+ goals

31%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

57%

Watford (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 8 matches

Watford away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.30 + Watford defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Watford attack 1.03 + Millwall defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Millwall scores more

41%

level

27%

Watford scores more

32%

Millwall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Watmore

Millwall · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

22'

55'

55'

62'

62'

M. Langstaff← G. Honeyman

74'

D. Watmore

75'

K. Sema← J. Ngakia

75'

M. Rajović← V. Bayo

84'

K. Nisbet← T. Bradshaw

84'

D. McNamara← R. Leonard

86'

Joe Bryan

86'

Edo Kayembe

88'

D. Watmore↳ G. Saville

90'

Mileta Rajović

90+4'

T. Ince← G. Chakvetadze

90'

M. Rajović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallWatford

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots10

2.00Expected Goals (xG)1.12

5Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots10

4On Target5

7Off Target3

5Blocked2

12Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

403Total Passes354

307Accurate Passes269

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.35Goals Prevented-0.35

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1