Millwall 1–0 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

C. Neghli 10'

9/22/2025

Championship · Round 6The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Millwall47%

×Draw26%

Watford27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Millwall

1.50

Watford

1.08

Millwall creates 39% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 38 away

1.45

creates per match

1.05

1.10

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Millwall

1.45

Watford

1.05

allows per match

Millwall

1.10

Watford

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

73%

Millwall or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

53%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

23%

Watford wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

78%

Millwall 2+ goals

44%

Millwall 3+ goals

19%

Watford 1+ goals

66%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

63%

Watford (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Watford away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.45 + Watford defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Watford attack 1.05 + Millwall defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millwall scores more

47%

level

26%

Watford scores more

27%

Millwall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Leonard

Millwall · D

7.9

Match Events

10'

30'

46'

62'

67'

W. Smallbone← A. Emakhu

72'

L. Kjerrumgaard← V. Semedo

72'

C. Wiley← M. Bola

72'

K. Baah← F. Mendy

78'

C. Taylor← T. Ballo

79'

Z. Sturge← J. Bryan

79'

M. Langstaff← C. Neghli

88'

R. Vata← H. Kyprianou

90+2'

W. Harding← R. Leonard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallWatford

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots11

0.70Expected Goals (xG)0.76

7Corners4

11Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots11

2On Target4

5Off Target4

2Blocked3

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

353Total Passes572

263Accurate Passes482

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.69Goals Prevented-0.69

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1