Watford 2–2 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Millwall

M. Rajović 90+2'

Y. Asprilla 7'

W. Harding 85'

Z. Flemming 12'

10/28/2023

Championship · Round 14Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Watford40%

×Draw27%

Millwall33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.18

Watford

1.31

Millwall

1.18

Watford creates 11% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

1.29

creates per match

1.15

1.21

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Millwall

1.15

allows per match

Watford

1.21

Millwall

1.34

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Watford-0.05on par

Millwall-0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

67%

Watford or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

60%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

18%

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

73%

Watford 2+ goals

38%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Millwall 1+ goals

69%

Millwall 2+ goals

33%

Millwall 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

54%

Millwall (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Millwall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Millwall attack 1.15 + Watford defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Watford scores more

40%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

33%

Watford at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Flemming

Millwall · F

7.5

Match Events

7'

Y. Asprilla

12'

Z. Flemming↳ T. Bradshaw

27'

37'

38'

50'

59'

R. Longman← G. Honeyman

61'

I. Louza← I. Koné

61'

Matheus Martins← Y. Asprilla

61'

M. Rajović← V. Bayo

79'

Ken Sema

82'

K. Nisbet← T. Bradshaw

82'

B. Mitchell← C. De Norre

83'

T. Ince← K. Sema

85'

W. Harding↳ G. Saville

87'

R. Healey← E. Kayembe

90+3'

Brooke Norton-Cuffy

90+2'

M. Rajović↳ I. Louza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordMillwall

Overview

65%Possession35%

19Total Shots11

2.27Expected Goals (xG)0.97

7Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots11

6On Target4

10Off Target4

3Blocked3

15Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

516Total Passes278

422Accurate Passes173

82%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1