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Watford vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Watford
Watford
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
I. Sarr 11' (pen)
4/24/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Watford40%
×Draw27%
Millwall32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.31
Millwall
1.14

Watford creates 15% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

creates per match

Watford
1.29
Millwall
1.12

allows per match

Watford
1.16
Millwall
1.33

finishing

Watford-0.02on par
Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw
68%
Watford or Millwall
73%
Draw or Millwall
60%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
18%
Millwall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
73%
Watford 2+ goals
38%
Watford 3+ goals
14%
Millwall 1+ goals
68%
Millwall 2+ goals
32%
Millwall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
56%
Millwall (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Millwall attack 1.12 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Watford scores more
40%
level
27%
Millwall scores more
32%

Watford at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. CleverleyWatfordWatford · M
7.9

Match Events

11'
I. SarrPenalty
31'
C. Cathcart← Kiko Femenía
60'
N. Chalobah← D. Gosling
60'
A. Gray← João Pedro
71'
S. Williams← B. Mitchell
71'
K. Zohorè← T. Bradshaw
77'
H. Muller← D. McNamara
78'
C. Mahoney← S. Malone
81'
T. Burey← M. Bennett
84'
C. Sánchez← T. Cleverley
86'
Hayden Muller

Possession

55%Watford

Shots

9Watford

Pass accuracy

53%Watford

Statistics

WatfordMillwall
Overview
55%Possession45%
9Total Shots13
5Corners5
9Fouls19
Shots
9Total Shots13
4On Target2
3Off Target9
2Blocked2
6Inside Box9
3Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
413Total Passes331
319Accurate Passes230
77%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls19
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Championship: Watford 1–0 Millwall

Watford beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on April 24, 2021.

Goals: I. Sarr (11' pen).

Watford controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.