Watford 1–2 Ipswich: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ipswich

Y. Asprilla 12'

Sam Morsy 80'

G. Hirst 24'

12/12/2023

Championship · Round 21Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Watford29%

×Draw26%

Ipswich45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.50

Watford

1.15

Ipswich

1.50

Ipswich creates 30% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 5 away

1.27

creates per match

1.79

1.21

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Watford

1.27

Ipswich

1.79

allows per match

Watford

1.21

Ipswich

1.03

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Watford-0.09on par

Ipswich+0.01on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Watford or draw

55%

Watford or Ipswich

74%

Draw or Ipswich

71%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Ipswich wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

68%

Watford 2+ goals

32%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Ipswich 1+ goals

78%

Ipswich 2+ goals

44%

Ipswich 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

39%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.03 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.27 + Ipswich defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ipswich attack 1.79 + Watford defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Watford scores more

29%

level

26%

Ipswich scores more

45%

Ipswich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Y. Asprilla

Watford · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

24'

39'

45'

46'

46'

H. Clarke← B. Williams

53'

67'

67'

68'

68'

68'

N. Broadhead← M. Harness

80'

Sam Morsy

82'

Matheus Martins← K. Sema

82'

R. Healey← E. Kayembe

84'

Vakoun Issouf Bayo

89'

Omari Hutchinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordIpswich

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots10

1.29Expected Goals (xG)1.82

6Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target6

5Off Target2

4Blocked2

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

387Total Passes445

295Accurate Passes367

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1