Watford 0–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ipswich

R. Chaplow 90+5'

3/21/2015

Championship · Round 39Vicarage Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Watford41%

×Draw26%

Ipswich32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.18

Watford

1.38

Ipswich

1.18

Watford creates 17% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 45 away

1.26

creates per match

1.29

1.07

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Watford

1.26

Ipswich

1.29

allows per match

Watford

1.07

Ipswich

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw

68%

Watford or Ipswich

74%

Draw or Ipswich

59%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

19%

Ipswich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

40%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Ipswich 1+ goals

69%

Ipswich 2+ goals

33%

Ipswich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

56%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.26 + Ipswich defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ipswich attack 1.29 + Watford defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Watford scores more

41%

level

26%

Ipswich scores more

32%

Watford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Daryl Murphy

34'

G. Angella← J. Ekstrand

37'

Gabriele Angella

52'

Tyrone Mings

58'

I. Anya← D. Tőzsér

60'

P. Anderson← L. Varney

74'

F. Sears← C. Wood

78'

86'

90'

90+5'

Watford

Ipswich

33

6

4

5

3

17

▼

Bru

18

Tabb

8

Skuse

15

▼

Varney

9

Murphy

39

▼

Wood

1

Gomes

6

▼

Ekstrand

15

Cathcart

7

▼

Layún

31

Hoban

47

Motta

8

▼

23

5

24

9

34'▲G. Angella←▼J. Ekstrand

58'▲I. Anya←▼D. Tőzsér

78'▲M. Vydra←▼M. Layún

Watford substitutes

4Angella21Anya20Vydra3Munari14Paredes18Pudil30Bond

60'▲P. Anderson←▼L. Varney

74'▲F. Sears←▼C. Wood

86'▲R. Chaplow←▼K. Bru

Ipswich substitutes

11Anderson20Sears14Chaplow12Hunt28Clarke31Benyu38Crowe