Ipswich 1–1 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Ipswich

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Watford

J. Philogene 21'

I. Louza 16'

11/4/2025

Championship · Round 14Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Ipswich56%

×Draw25%

Watford19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.81

Ipswich

1.61

Watford

0.81

Ipswich creates 99% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.93

creates per match

1.03

0.60

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ipswich

1.93

Watford

1.03

allows per match

Ipswich

0.60

Watford

1.29

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Ipswich-0.22scores less

Watford+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

81%

Ipswich or Watford

75%

Draw or Watford

44%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

30%

Watford wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

80%

Ipswich 2+ goals

48%

Ipswich 3+ goals

22%

Watford 1+ goals

56%

Watford 2+ goals

19%

Watford 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

75%

Watford (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.60 · 7 matches

Watford away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.93 + Watford defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.61

Watford attack 1.03 + Ipswich defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ipswich scores more

56%

level

25%

Watford scores more

19%

Ipswich at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Louza

Watford · M

8.5

Match Events

16'

I. Louza

21'

J. Philogene↳ C. Kipre

45+1'

Kwadwo Baah

55'

George Hirst

59'

Marc Bola

64'

J. Taylor← J. Cajuste

64'

J. Clarke← J. Philogene

64'

I. Azon← G. Hirst

72'

L. Kjerrumgaard← V. Semedo

72'

E. Kayembe← K. Baah

72'

O. Maamma← T. Ince

79'

J. Greaves← B. Johnson

79'

M. Nunez← C. Akpom

83'

N. Irankunda← M. Doumbia

90'

M. Sissoko← H. Kyprianou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichWatford

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots4

1.94Expected Goals (xG)0.34

2Corners5

2Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots4

4On Target2

7Off Target1

5Blocked1

10Inside Box2

6Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

485Total Passes350

404Accurate Passes259

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.23Goals Prevented0.23

Discipline

2Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1