Watford 1–4 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Crystal Palace

M. Sissoko 18'

W. Zaha 90', 85'

C. Gallagher 42'

J. Mateta 15'

2/23/2022

Premier League · Round 18Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw26%

Crystal Palace37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.38

Watford

1.37

Crystal Palace

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 210 away

1.20

creates per match

1.18

1.58

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Watford

1.20

Crystal Palace

1.18

allows per match

Watford

1.58

Crystal Palace

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Watford or draw

63%

Watford or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

17%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

40%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

75%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

40%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

50%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 210 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.20 + Crystal Palace defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.37

Crystal Palace attack 1.18 + Watford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

37%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

W. Zaha

Crystal Palace · F

8.9

Match Events

15'

J. Mateta

18'

M. Sissoko↳ Kiko Femenía

40'

Samir

42'

C. Gallagher↳ T. Mitchell

44'

Cheikhou Kouyaté

51'

J. Hernández← J. King

62'

Kiko Femenía

73'

E. Kayembe← T. Cleverley

73'

J. Ayew← M. Olise

80'

J. McArthur← W. Hughes

85'

W. Zaha↳ J. Ayew

90+2'

O. Édouard← J. Mateta

90'

W. Zaha↳ J. McArthur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordCrystal

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots7

6Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots7

1On Target5

4Off Target2

3Blocked0

6Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

456Total Passes556

363Accurate Passes469

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1