Crystal Palace 1–2 Watford: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

C. Cathcart 38' (OG)

T. Cleverley 74'

C. Cathcart 67'

1/12/2019

Premier League · Round 22Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Crystal Palace46%

×Draw26%

Watford28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.10

Crystal Palace

1.47

Watford

1.10

Crystal Palace creates 34% more chances

Season form · 206 home / 112 away

1.15

creates per match

0.96

1.25

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.15

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.25

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

72%

Crystal Palace or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

54%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

22%

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

77%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

43%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

18%

Watford 1+ goals

67%

Watford 2+ goals

30%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

62%

Watford (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 206 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.15 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.47

Watford attack 0.96 + Crystal Palace defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

46%

level

26%

Watford scores more

28%

Crystal Palace at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Milivojević

Crystal Palace · M

7.6

Match Events

19'

K. Sema← W. Hughes

38'

C. CathcartOwn goal

45'

W. Hennessey← Guaita

61'

Kiko Femenia

65'

Ken Sema

67'

C. Cathcart↳ J. Holebas

68'

T. Cleverley← K. Sema

74'

T. Cleverley

78'

C. Benteke← J. McArthur

83'

84'

90'

90'

90+3'

A. Masina← R. Pereyra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalWatford

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots16

7Corners7

11Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots16

6On Target2

6Off Target9

3Blocked5

9Inside Box9

6Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

409Total Passes334

310Accurate Passes260

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2