Watford 0–0 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crystal Palace

12/7/2019

Premier League · Round 16Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw25%

Crystal Palace38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.40

Watford

1.39

Crystal Palace

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 207 away

1.21

creates per match

1.18

1.61

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Crystal Palace

1.18

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Crystal Palace

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Watford or draw

62%

Watford or Crystal Palace

75%

Draw or Crystal Palace

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

17%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

40%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

75%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

41%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

50%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 207 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Crystal Palace defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Crystal Palace attack 1.18 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

25%

Crystal Palace scores more

38%

Crystal Palace at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

I. Sarr

Watford · M

7.6

Match Events

34'

Abdoulaye Doucouré

38'

Wilfried Zaha

40'

Craig Cathcart

46'

J. Riedewald← J. Schlupp

72'

James Tomkins

73'

C. Benteke← A. Townsend

77'

A. Gray← R. Pereyra

78'

N. Chalobah← A. Doucouré

83'

J. McCarthy← C. Kouyaté

87'

Kiko Femenia

90'

Étienne Capoue

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordCrystal

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots3

6Corners2

15Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots3

3On Target0

4Off Target2

6Blocked1

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

384Total Passes391

280Accurate Passes288

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1