Watford 1–1 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Crystal Palace

T. Deeney 71' (pen)

Y. Cabaye 26'

12/26/2016

Premier League · Round 18Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw25%

Crystal Palace38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.40

Watford

1.38

Crystal Palace

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 208 away

1.21

creates per match

1.18

1.61

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Crystal Palace

1.18

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Crystal Palace

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Watford or draw

62%

Watford or Crystal Palace

75%

Draw or Crystal Palace

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

17%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

40%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

75%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

41%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

49%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 208 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Crystal Palace defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Crystal Palace attack 1.18 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

25%

Crystal Palace scores more

38%

Crystal Palace at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Townsend

Crystal Palace · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

C. Zúñiga← D. Janmaat

14'

T. Deeney← V. Behrami

26'

Y. Cabaye↳ A. Townsend

45'

45'

53'

70'

71'

T. DeeneyPenalty

74'

J. Mutch← A. Townsend

81'

F. Campbell← M. Flamini

85'

J. Sinclair← C. Zúñiga

87'

Wilfried Zaha

90'

Miguel Britos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordCrystal

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots10

7Corners3

18Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target4

4Off Target5

2Blocked1

3Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

355Total Passes292

235Accurate Passes174

66%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1