Watford 1–2 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Coventry

R. Porteous 20'

H. Wright 72', 40' (pen)

3/9/2024

Championship · Round 37Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Watford35%

×Draw27%

Coventry38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.29

Watford

1.23

Coventry

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

1.35

1.22

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Coventry

1.35

allows per match

Watford

1.22

Coventry

1.17

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Watford-0.10scores less

Coventry+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

62%

Watford or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

65%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

15%

Coventry wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Coventry 1+ goals

72%

Coventry 2+ goals

37%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

48%

Coventry (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 43 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Coventry defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Coventry attack 1.35 + Watford defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more

35%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

38%

Coventry at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. Wright

Coventry · F

8.3

Match Events

18'

Liam Kelly

20'

R. Porteous↳ R. Andrews

23'

Kasey Palmer

26'

Wesley Hoedt

40'

H. WrightPenalty

45+1'

Jake Bidwell

46'

V. Bayo← G. Chakvetadze

46'

M. van Ewijk← L. Kelly

58'

B. Sheaf← V. Torp

58'

C. O'Hare← K. Palmer

64'

Matheus Martins← E. Dennis

66'

Bobby Thomas

72'

H. Wright↳ J. Eccles

76'

T. Ince← I. Koné

86'

M. Rajović← Y. Asprilla

87'

M. Godden← E. Simms

88'

Haji Wright

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordCoventry

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots8

0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.17

5Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots8

5On Target3

6Off Target2

8Blocked3

10Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

463Total Passes340

361Accurate Passes243

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

5Offsides1