Coventry 3–1 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Coventry

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Watford

T. Sakamoto 42'

J. Allen 7'

B. Thomas-Asante 3'

I. Louza 69' (pen)

10/25/2025

Championship · Round 12Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Coventry41%

×Draw26%

Watford33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.25

Coventry

1.42

Watford

1.25

Coventry creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.07

1.44

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Coventry

1.60

Watford

1.07

allows per match

Coventry

1.44

Watford

1.24

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Coventry-0.10scores less

Watford+0.06on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

67%

Coventry or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

59%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

76%

Coventry 2+ goals

41%

Coventry 3+ goals

17%

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

55%

Watford (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.44 · 6 matches

Watford away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.60 + Watford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Watford attack 1.07 + Coventry defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Coventry scores more

41%

level

26%

Watford scores more

33%

Coventry at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

C. Rushworth

Coventry · G

9.3

Match Events

3'

B. Thomas-Asante↳ T. Sakamoto

7'

42'

44'

45+3'

45+1'

M. Pollock← M. Sissoko

46'

H. Kyprianou← E. Kayembe

52'

L. Woolfenden← B. Thomas

62'

Luke Woolfenden

64'

N. Irankunda← K. Baah

65'

V. Semedo← M. Doumbia

69'

I. LouzaPenalty

73'

E. Simms← H. Wright

73'

J. Eccles← E. Mason-Clark

76'

Milan van Ewijk

82'

K. Kesler-Hayden← M. van Ewijk

85'

Liam Kitching

85'

T. Ince← R. Vata

90+2'

Nestory Irankunda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryWatford

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots13

1.31Expected Goals (xG)2.61

5Corners6

10Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots13

3On Target8

6Off Target2

3Blocked3

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

457Total Passes371

398Accurate Passes314

87%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

-1.14Goals Prevented-1.14

Discipline

10Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides4