Coventry 2–1 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Coventry

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

V. Torp 75', 32'

L. Kitching 82' (OG)

1/25/2025

Championship · Round 29The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Coventry42%

×Draw26%

Watford32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

Coventry

1.44

Watford

1.23

Coventry creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 31 away

1.58

creates per match

1.02

1.43

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Coventry

1.58

Watford

1.02

allows per match

Coventry

1.43

Watford

1.29

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Coventry+0.17scores more

Watford+0.08on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

68%

Coventry or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

58%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

20%

Watford wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

76%

Coventry 2+ goals

42%

Coventry 3+ goals

18%

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

57%

Watford (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Watford away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.58 + Watford defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Watford attack 1.02 + Coventry defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Coventry scores more

42%

level

26%

Watford scores more

32%

Coventry at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

V. Torp

Coventry · M

9.2

Match Events

21'

Edo Kayembe

32'

V. Torp↳ J. Rudoni

46'

R. Andrews← J. Ngakia

50'

Victor Torp

51'

James Morris

64'

Yasser Larouci

68'

M. Sissoko← T. Dele-Bashiru

71'

T. Sakamoto← B. Thomas-Asante

75'

V. Torp

79'

J. Eccles← J. Allen

79'

T. Ince← R. Vata

79'

M. Doumbia← V. Bayo

79'

J. Abankwah← R. Porteous

82'

L. KitchingOwn goal

87'

Jack Rudoni

90'

Liam Kitching

90+7'

Moussa Sissoko

90+2'

N. Bassette← E. Simms

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryWatford

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots12

1.44Expected Goals (xG)0.60

5Corners3

10Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots12

2On Target3

9Off Target5

3Blocked4

8Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

342Total Passes446

268Accurate Passes361

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

-0.70Goals Prevented-0.70

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides4