Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Watford vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Watford
Watford
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
I. Sarr 83' (pen)
W. Troost-Ekong 66'
A. Gray 53'
T. Walker 64'
G. Hamer 63'
11/7/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Watford35%
×Draw27%
Coventry38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.25
Coventry
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 58 away

creates per match

Watford
1.29
Coventry
1.44

allows per match

Watford
1.16
Coventry
1.22

finishing

Watford-0.02on par
Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw
62%
Watford or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
65%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
15%
Coventry wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
71%
Watford 2+ goals
36%
Watford 3+ goals
13%
Coventry 1+ goals
73%
Coventry 2+ goals
37%
Coventry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
48%
Coventry (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coventry attack 1.44 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more
35%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
38%

Coventry at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
I. SarrWatfordWatford · F
7.7

Match Events

53'
A. Gray
55'
Leo Østigård
62'
Kiko Femenia
63'
G. Hamer
64'
T. Walker↳ M. Biamou
66'
W. Troost-Ekong↳ J. Garner
67'
J. Ngakia← Kiko Femenía
74'
T. Deeney← A. Gray
83'
Callum O'Hare
83'
I. SarrPenalty
87'
N. Chalobah← J. Garner
90'
J. Allen← G. Hamer
90'
J. Da Costa← S. McCallum

Possession

52%Watford

Shots

12Watford

Pass accuracy

50%Watford

Statistics

WatfordCoventry
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots13
7Corners1
16Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots13
5On Target3
3Off Target9
4Blocked1
7Inside Box5
5Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
515Total Passes469
439Accurate Passes395
85%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Watford vs Coventry

Watford beat Coventry 3-2 in Championship on November 7, 2020.

Goals: A. Gray (53'), G. Hamer (63'), T. Walker (64'), W. Troost-Ekong (66'), I. Sarr (83' pen).

Watford controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.