Watford 1–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cardiff

G. Chakvetadze 38'

C. Robinson 42', 1'

12/29/2024

Championship · Round 24Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Watford45%

×Draw28%

Cardiff27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.96

Watford

1.31

Cardiff

0.96

Watford creates 36% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 24 away

1.28

creates per match

0.76

1.17

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Watford

1.28

Cardiff

0.76

allows per match

Watford

1.17

Cardiff

1.35

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Watford-0.05on par

Cardiff+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Watford or draw

73%

Watford or Cardiff

72%

Draw or Cardiff

55%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

21%

Cardiff wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

73%

Watford 2+ goals

38%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Cardiff 1+ goals

62%

Cardiff 2+ goals

25%

Cardiff 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

62%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.28 + Cardiff defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cardiff attack 0.76 + Watford defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Watford scores more

45%

level

28%

Cardiff scores more

27%

Watford at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

C. Robinson

Cardiff · F

8.9

Match Events

1'

C. Robinson↳ C. O'Dowda

38'

G. Chakvetadze↳ R. Vata

42'

C. Robinson↳ C. Ashford

46'

F. Sierralta← R. Porteous

55'

57'

58'

60'

65'

O. Tanner← C. Willock

67'

T. Ince← I. Louza

69'

Calum Chambers

74'

J. Bagan← C. Chambers

81'

Jesper Daland

86'

Ryan Andrews

89'

Y. Meïté← C. Ashford

89'

R. Colwill← C. ODowda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordCardiff

Overview

73%Possession27%

9Total Shots9

0.66Expected Goals (xG)1.49

4Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots9

1On Target3

5Off Target5

3Blocked1

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box1

Passing

73%Possession27%

520Total Passes192

431Accurate Passes105

83%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

-0.90Goals Prevented-0.90

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

Championship: Watford 1–2 Cardiff

Cardiff beat Watford 2-1 in Championship on December 29, 2024.

Goals: C. Robinson (1', 42'), G. Chakvetadze (38').

Watford controlled possession (73%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 1–2 Cardiff