Cardiff 1–1 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

M. McGuinness 26'

V. Bayo 54'

10/7/2023

Championship · Round 11Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Cardiff35%

×Draw28%

Watford37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.21

Cardiff

1.17

Watford

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

1.03

creates per match

1.02

1.39

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Cardiff

1.03

Watford

1.02

allows per match

Cardiff

1.39

Watford

1.31

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Cardiff-0.20scores less

Watford+0.03on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

63%

Cardiff or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

65%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

15%

Watford wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

69%

Cardiff 2+ goals

33%

Cardiff 3+ goals

11%

Watford 1+ goals

70%

Watford 2+ goals

34%

Watford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

49%

Watford (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Watford away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Watford defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Watford attack 1.02 + Cardiff defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardiff scores more

35%

level

28%

Watford scores more

37%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Bayo

Watford · F

7.6

Match Events

26'

M. McGuinness

39'

Francisco Sierralta

54'

V. Bayo

58'

C. Robinson← J. Ralls

59'

T. Ince← Y. Asprilla

59'

I. Louza← T. Dele-Bashiru

64'

R. Porteous← F. Sierralta

65'

Jamal Lewis

70'

J. Bowler← O. Tanner

85'

M. Rajović← Matheus Martins

87'

R. Sawyers← I. Ugbo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffWatford

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots8

0.69Expected Goals (xG)2.04

2Corners1

9Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots8

2On Target1

3Off Target5

3Blocked2

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

442Total Passes563

321Accurate Passes453

73%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3