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Watford vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Watford
Watford
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cardiff
Cardiff
J. Bowler 43'
2/3/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Watford46%
×Draw28%
Cardiff26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.34
Cardiff
0.94

Watford creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 23 away

creates per match

Watford
1.30
Cardiff
0.73

allows per match

Watford
1.16
Cardiff
1.38

finishing

Watford-0.06on par
Cardiff+0.14scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Watford or draw
74%
Watford or Cardiff
72%
Draw or Cardiff
54%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
22%
Cardiff wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
74%
Watford 2+ goals
39%
Watford 3+ goals
15%
Cardiff 1+ goals
61%
Cardiff 2+ goals
24%
Cardiff 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
64%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.16 · 34 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.38 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.30 + Cardiff defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cardiff attack 0.73 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Watford scores more
46%
level
28%
Cardiff scores more
26%

Watford at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
J. AlnwickCardiffCardiff · G
8.3

Match Events

43'
J. Bowler↳ P. Ng
44'
Giorgi Chakvetadze
47'
Matthew Pollock
50'
Jake Livermore
51'
Rubin Colwill
60'
M. Rajović← V. Bayo
60'
E. Dennis← Matheus Martins
60'
K. Sema← G. Chakvetadze
63'
D. Turnbull← R. Colwill
69'
Josh Bowler
73'
M. Romeo← P. Ng
73'
J. Wilson-Esbrand← J. Bowler
78'
T. Dele-Bashiru← J. Livermore
82'
N. Phillips← J. Collins
82'
F. Diédhiou← K. Etete
90+1'
Dimitris Goutas

Possession

62%Watford

Shots

17Watford

Pass accuracy

52%Watford

Statistics

WatfordCardiff
Overview
62%Possession38%
17Total Shots10
1.14Expected Goals (xG)0.47
10Corners2
16Fouls6
Shots
17Total Shots10
6On Target2
7Off Target8
4Blocked0
11Inside Box3
6Outside Box7
Passing
62%Possession38%
544Total Passes353
462Accurate Passes275
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls6
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Watford vs Cardiff

Cardiff beat Watford 1-0 in Championship on February 3, 2024.

Goals: J. Bowler (43').

Watford controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.