Watford 1–2 Burnley: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

R. Pereyra 61'

J. Cork 73'

S. Vokes 70'

4/7/2018

Premier League · Round 33Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford41%

×Draw26%

Burnley34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.29

Watford

1.45

Burnley

1.29

Watford creates 12% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 156 away

1.21

creates per match

0.96

1.61

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Burnley

0.96

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Burnley

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Watford or draw

66%

Watford or Burnley

74%

Draw or Burnley

59%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

20%

Burnley wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

77%

Watford 2+ goals

42%

Watford 3+ goals

18%

Burnley 1+ goals

72%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

55%

Burnley (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.45

Burnley attack 0.96 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Watford scores more

41%

level

26%

Burnley scores more

34%

Watford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

K. Long

Burnley · D

7.9

Match Events

33'

Georges-Kévin N'Koudou

56'

61'

70'

70'

73'

J. Cork↳ K. Long

76'

S. Okaka← D. Janmaat

81'

J. Hendrick← A. Lennon

85'

Richarlison← W. Hughes

85'

A. Carrillo← A. Doucouré

90'

Stefano Okaka

90'

Matthew Lowton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBurnley

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots7

11Corners1

18Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots7

5On Target4

4Off Target2

5Blocked1

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

435Total Passes292

319Accurate Passes179

73%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2