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Burnley vs Watford — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
2/5/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Burnley43%
×Draw26%
Watford30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.41
Watford
1.14

Burnley creates 24% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 114 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.04
Watford
0.96

allows per match

Burnley
1.32
Watford
1.77

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
70%
Burnley or Watford
74%
Draw or Watford
57%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
21%
Watford wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
76%
Burnley 2+ goals
41%
Burnley 3+ goals
17%
Watford 1+ goals
68%
Watford 2+ goals
32%
Watford 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
59%
Watford (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.77 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Watford defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.41

Watford attack 0.96 + Burnley defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burnley scores more
43%
level
26%
Watford scores more
30%

Burnley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
H. KamaraWatfordWatford · D
8.3

Match Events

20'
Joshua King
45'
Dale Stephens
45+2'
Ken SemaPenalty cancelled
66'
J. Rodriguez← A. Lennon
70'
T. Cleverley← E. Kayembe
83'
J. Hernández← João Pedro
90+1'
Tom Cleverley

Possession

52%Burnley

Shots

13Burnley

Pass accuracy

50%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyWatford
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots11
4Corners7
16Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots11
2On Target5
7Off Target4
4Blocked2
7Inside Box7
6Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
391Total Passes359
270Accurate Passes245
69%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Burnley vs Watford

Burnley and Watford drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 5, 2022.

Burnley controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.