Burnley 2–1 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Burnley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

J. Brownhill 62'

J. Anthony 9'

K. Baah 80'

12/21/2024

Championship · Round 22Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Burnley46%

×Draw29%

Watford25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.84

Burnley

1.25

Watford

0.84

Burnley creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 46 away

1.17

creates per match

1.04

0.64

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Burnley

1.17

Watford

1.04

allows per match

Burnley

0.64

Watford

1.32

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Burnley+0.38scores more

Watford-0.02on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

75%

Burnley or Watford

71%

Draw or Watford

54%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

21%

Watford wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

71%

Burnley 2+ goals

36%

Burnley 3+ goals

13%

Watford 1+ goals

57%

Watford 2+ goals

21%

Watford 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

65%

Watford (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Watford away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.17 + Watford defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Watford attack 1.04 + Burnley defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Burnley scores more

46%

level

29%

Watford scores more

25%

Burnley at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Anthony

Burnley · M

8.2

Match Events

9'

J. Anthony↳ J. Brownhill

41'

Jeremy Ngakia

46'

F. Sierralta← R. Vata

49'

Josh Laurent

59'

R. Andrews← J. Ngakia

60'

F. Ebosele← Y. Larouci

62'

J. Brownhill↳ H. Mejbri

64'

CJ Egan-Riley

71'

D. Jebbison← V. Bayo

80'

K. Baah

82'

E. Kayembe← P. Dwomoh

84'

L. Koleosho← H. Mejbri

88'

James Trafford

90+3'

J. Egan← C. Roberts

90+1'

J. Rodríguez← Z. Flemming

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyWatford

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots9

1.21Expected Goals (xG)0.46

7Corners3

12Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target2

5Off Target4

5Blocked3

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

456Total Passes367

373Accurate Passes287

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.60Goals Prevented-0.60

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2