Watford 1–2 Burnley: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Burnley

M. Doumbia 8'

J. Brownhill 58'

Z. Flemming 43'

4/18/2025

Championship · Round 43Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Watford34%

×Draw29%

Burnley38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.15

Watford

1.07

Burnley

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 12 away

1.28

creates per match

1.07

1.22

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Watford

1.28

Burnley

1.07

allows per match

Watford

1.22

Burnley

0.86

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Watford-0.10scores less

Burnley+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Watford or draw

62%

Watford or Burnley

71%

Draw or Burnley

66%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Burnley wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

66%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

9%

Burnley 1+ goals

68%

Burnley 2+ goals

32%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

47%

Burnley (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.86 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.28 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Burnley attack 1.07 + Watford defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more

34%

level

29%

Burnley scores more

38%

Burnley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Cullen

Burnley · M

7.9

Match Events

8'

M. Doumbia↳ R. Vata

43'

Z. Flemming↳ J. Anthony

58'

J. Brownhill↳ H. Mejbri

59'

60'

60'

61'

66'

66'

69'

69'

69'

72'

J. Laurent← M. Edwards

75'

V. Bayo← M. Doumbia

75'

R. Andrews← J. Ngakia

75'

T. Ince← R. Vata

84'

Vakoun Issouf Bayo

85'

T. Dele-Bashiru← I. Louza

85'

F. Sierralta← J. Abankwah

88'

A. Barnes← Z. Flemming

90+7'

Ryan Andrews

90+8'

James Trafford

90+7'

Jeremy Sarmiento

90+7'

J. Sarmiento← J. Brownhill

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBurnley

Overview

35%Possession65%

11Total Shots16

1.05Expected Goals (xG)1.96

4Corners1

17Fouls4

Shots

11Total Shots16

5On Target7

4Off Target4

2Blocked5

5Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

296Total Passes568

213Accurate Passes497

72%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

0.25Goals Prevented0.25

Discipline

17Fouls4

7Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards0

2Offsides4

Championship: Watford 1–2 Burnley

Burnley beat Watford 2-1 in Championship on April 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Doumbia (8'), Z. Flemming (43'), J. Brownhill (58').

Burnley controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Burnley — Championship 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 1–2 Burnley