Watford 1–2 Brentford: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Brentford

E. Dennis 55'

P. Jansson 90+5'

C. Nørgaard 15'

4/16/2022

Premier League · Round 33Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw25%

Brentford37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

Watford

1.40

Brentford

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 75 away

1.20

creates per match

1.21

1.58

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Watford

1.20

Brentford

1.21

allows per match

Watford

1.58

Brentford

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Watford or draw

63%

Watford or Brentford

75%

Draw or Brentford

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

17%

Brentford wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

41%

Watford 3+ goals

17%

Brentford 1+ goals

75%

Brentford 2+ goals

41%

Brentford 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

50%

Brentford (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.20 + Brentford defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Brentford attack 1.21 + Watford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

25%

Brentford scores more

37%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

C. Eriksen

Brentford · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

C. Nørgaard↳ K. Ajer

21'

M. Sørensen← E. Pinnock

53'

Hassane Kamara

55'

E. Dennis↳ I. Sarr

57'

Emmanuel DennisGoal confirmed

62'

Ivan Toney

66'

S. Ghoddos← Y. Wissa

74'

M. Jensen← V. Janelt

84'

T. Cleverley← J. Kucka

84'

J. King← João Pedro

87'

Imrân Louza

87'

C. Cathcart← Kiko Femenía

90+5'

P. Jansson↳ C. Eriksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBrentford

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots16

6Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots16

4On Target5

8Off Target7

5Blocked4

12Inside Box9

5Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

396Total Passes382

301Accurate Passes282

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1