Watford 1–3 Brentford: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 3

Brentford

7/24/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3University College London

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Watford15%

×Draw23%

Brentford62%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

1.75

Watford

0.71

Brentford

1.75

Brentford creates 146% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.50

2.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Watford

0.67

Brentford

1.50

allows per match

Watford

2.00

Brentford

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–213%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

38%

Watford or Brentford

77%

Draw or Brentford

85%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

4%

Brentford wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

51%

Watford 2+ goals

16%

Watford 3+ goals

4%

Brentford 1+ goals

83%

Brentford 2+ goals

52%

Brentford 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

19%

Brentford (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 0.67 + Brentford defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Brentford attack 1.50 + Watford defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Watford scores more

15%

level

23%

Brentford scores more

62%

Brentford at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff