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Brentford vs Watford — Premier League 2026

Brentford
Brentford
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Watford
Watford
B. Mbeumo 90+6' (pen)
P. Jansson 84'
E. Dennis 24'
12/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Brentford51%
×Draw24%
Watford25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brentford
1.71
Watford
1.11

Brentford creates 54% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 114 away

creates per match

Brentford
1.66
Watford
0.96

allows per match

Brentford
1.26
Watford
1.77

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par
Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brentford or draw
75%
Brentford or Watford
76%
Draw or Watford
49%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+
28%
Watford wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals
82%
Brentford 2+ goals
51%
Brentford 3+ goals
24%
Watford 1+ goals
67%
Watford 2+ goals
30%
Watford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)
68%
Watford (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.77 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.66 + Watford defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Watford attack 0.96 + Brentford defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brentford scores more
51%
level
24%
Watford scores more
25%

Brentford at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
V. JaneltBrentfordBrentford · D
8.2

Match Events

24'
E. Dennis↳ T. Cleverley
58'
João Pedro← T. Cleverley
68'
Vitaly Janelt
69'
M. Forss← Y. Wissa
69'
S. Ghoddos← M. Jensen
70'
Pontus Jansson
77'
F. Onyeka← R. Henry
77'
K. Sema← J. Hernández
81'
Charlie Goode
84'
P. Jansson↳ M. Forss
85'
Charlie GoodeGoal confirmed
90+1'
Frank Onyeka
90+1'
O. Tufan← E. Dennis
90+6'
B. MbeumoPenalty

Possession

63%Brentford

Shots

14Brentford

Pass accuracy

56%Brentford

Statistics

BrentfordWatford
Overview
63%Possession37%
14Total Shots6
8Corners2
12Fouls18
Shots
14Total Shots6
5On Target2
4Off Target3
5Blocked1
11Inside Box4
3Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
472Total Passes281
350Accurate Passes163
74%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls18
4Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Brentford vs Watford

Brentford beat Watford 2-1 in Premier League on December 10, 2021.

Goals: E. Dennis (24'), P. Jansson (84'), B. Mbeumo (90+6' pen).

Brentford controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Brentford Community Stadium in Brentford, Middlesex.