Watford 1–1 Brentford: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brentford

T. Deeney 60' (pen)

I. Toney 63' (pen)

12/15/2020

Championship · Round 19Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Watford39%

×Draw27%

Brentford34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.18

Watford

1.29

Brentford

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 70 away

1.48

creates per match

1.41

0.95

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Watford

1.48

Brentford

1.41

allows per match

Watford

0.95

Brentford

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

66%

Watford or Brentford

73%

Draw or Brentford

61%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

17%

Brentford wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

72%

Watford 2+ goals

37%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Brentford 1+ goals

69%

Brentford 2+ goals

33%

Brentford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

54%

Brentford (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.95 · 121 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.48 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Brentford attack 1.41 + Watford defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Watford scores more

39%

level

27%

Brentford scores more

34%

Watford at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

I. Toney

Brentford · F

7.5

Match Events

58'

Ethan Pinnock

60'

T. DeeneyPenalty

61'

C. Goode← Sergi Canós

63'

I. ToneyPenalty

66'

E. Capoue← N. Chalobah

70'

M. Forss← B. Mbeumo

73'

S. Perica← J. Garner

76'

Christian Kabasele

82'

E. Marcondes← J. Dasilva

86'

87'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBrentford

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots12

2Corners0

18Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target2

8Off Target7

3Blocked3

9Inside Box9

5Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

393Total Passes475

311Accurate Passes384

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls12

4Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0