Watford 3–0 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Birmingham

T. Ince 60', 38', 9'

1/1/2026

Championship · Round 25Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Watford48%

×Draw27%

Birmingham25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.92

Watford

1.41

Birmingham

0.92

Watford creates 53% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 33 away

1.26

creates per match

0.79

1.05

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Watford

1.26

Birmingham

0.79

allows per match

Watford

1.05

Birmingham

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Watford or draw

75%

Watford or Birmingham

73%

Draw or Birmingham

52%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

24%

Birmingham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

76%

Watford 2+ goals

41%

Watford 3+ goals

17%

Birmingham 1+ goals

60%

Birmingham 2+ goals

23%

Birmingham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

66%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.26 + Birmingham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Birmingham attack 0.79 + Watford defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Watford scores more

48%

level

27%

Birmingham scores more

25%

Watford at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

T. Ince

Watford · M

10.0

Match Events

9'

T. Ince↳ G. Chakvetadze

38'

T. Ince

43'

Matthew Pollock

46'

N. Irankunda← G. Chakvetadze

46'

M. Leonard← A. Sampsted

46'

L. Dykes← W. T. Willumsson

60'

T. Ince↳ N. Irankunda

62'

E. Cashin← A. Cochrane

63'

Lyndon Dykes

64'

V. Semedo← L. Kjerrumgaard

68'

M. Ducksch← K. Furuhashi

69'

N. Mendy← I. Louza

70'

M. Sissoko← O. Maamma

77'

K. Baah← T. Ince

77'

L. Koumas← K. Anderson

78'

Seung-Ho Paik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBirmingham

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots6

1.56Expected Goals (xG)0.40

4Corners4

5Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots6

6On Target2

5Off Target3

2Blocked1

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

402Total Passes484

317Accurate Passes396

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.60Goals Prevented-0.60

Discipline

5Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3