Birmingham 2–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Watford

D. Gray 43'

Paik Seung-Ho 31'

O. Maamma 61'

12/1/2025

Championship · Round 18St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Birmingham47%

×Draw26%

Watford27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.07

Birmingham

1.50

Watford

1.07

Birmingham creates 40% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 55 away

1.44

creates per match

0.98

1.16

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Birmingham

1.44

Watford

0.98

allows per match

Birmingham

1.16

Watford

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

73%

Birmingham or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

53%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

24%

Watford wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

78%

Birmingham 2+ goals

44%

Birmingham 3+ goals

19%

Watford 1+ goals

66%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

64%

Watford (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Watford away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.44 + Watford defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Watford attack 0.98 + Birmingham defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Birmingham scores more

47%

level

26%

Watford scores more

27%

Birmingham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Paik Seung-Ho

Birmingham · M

7.7

Match Events

20'

Hector Kyprianou

24'

Tommy Doyle

31'

Paik Seung-Ho

43'

D. Gray↳ J. Stansfield

59'

G. Chakvetadze← T. Ince

60'

V. Semedo← L. Kjerrumgaard

60'

E. Kayembe← H. Kyprianou

61'

O. Maamma↳ M. Bola

69'

K. Anderson← D. Gray

73'

A. Sampsted← B. Osayi-Samuel

73'

76'

78'

80'

85'

M. Sissoko← O. Maamma

90+2'

M. Leonard← J. Stansfield

90+2'

L. Koumas← P. Roberts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamWatford

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots12

1.26Expected Goals (xG)1.03

6Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target4

5Off Target5

3Blocked3

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

418Total Passes422

321Accurate Passes335

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.84Goals Prevented-0.84

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2