Watford 2–0 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Birmingham

R. Andrews 90+6'

M. Rajović 90+1'

9/16/2023

Championship · Round 6Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw29%

Birmingham33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.05

Watford

1.13

Birmingham

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 5 away

1.31

creates per match

0.92

1.18

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Watford

1.31

Birmingham

0.92

allows per match

Watford

1.18

Birmingham

0.94

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Watford-0.04on par

Birmingham-0.52scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Watford or draw

67%

Watford or Birmingham

71%

Draw or Birmingham

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

15%

Birmingham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

68%

Watford 2+ goals

31%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Birmingham 1+ goals

65%

Birmingham 2+ goals

28%

Birmingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

53%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.31 + Birmingham defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Birmingham attack 0.92 + Watford defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

29%

Birmingham scores more

33%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Porteous

Watford · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

35'

38'

46'

55'

56'

57'

60'

65'

I. Koné← Matheus Martins

65'

G. Chakvetadze← T. Dele-Bashiru

68'

K. Miyoshi← K. Anderson

71'

J. Bacuna← O. Burke

77'

R. Andrews← J. Ngakia

87'

M. Emmanuel← J. Stansfield

87'

88'

88'

90+3'

90+1'

M. Rajović↳ Y. Asprilla

90+6'

R. Andrews↳ G. Chakvetadze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBirmingham

Overview

68%Possession32%

12Total Shots8

0.41Expected Goals (xG)0.85

8Corners1

16Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target3

3Off Target1

5Blocked4

3Inside Box3

9Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

629Total Passes305

555Accurate Passes230

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls17

1Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Watford vs Birmingham

Watford beat Birmingham 2-0 in Championship on September 16, 2023.

Goals: M. Rajović (90+1'), R. Andrews (90+6').

Watford controlled possession (68%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Birmingham — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs Birmingham