Watford 3–0 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Birmingham

A. Gray 80'

N. Chalobah 55'

K. Sema 4'

3/20/2021

Championship · Round 38Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Watford43%

×Draw28%

Birmingham30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.05

Watford

1.32

Birmingham

1.05

Watford creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

1.29

creates per match

0.94

1.16

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Birmingham

0.94

allows per match

Watford

1.16

Birmingham

1.35

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Watford-0.02on par

Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Watford or draw

70%

Watford or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

57%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

20%

Birmingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

73%

Watford 2+ goals

38%

Watford 3+ goals

15%

Birmingham 1+ goals

65%

Birmingham 2+ goals

28%

Birmingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

59%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Watford scores more

43%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

30%

Watford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

N. Chalobah

Watford · M

7.7

Match Events

4'

K. Sema

35'

Kristian Pedersen

44'

Isaac Success

55'

N. Chalobah↳ D. Gosling

56'

C. Sánchez← D. Gosling

57'

J. Hungbo← I. Success

61'

J. Leko← S. Hogan

61'

Iván Sánchez← A. Halilović

61'

San José← Jérémie Bela

67'

A. Lazaar← A. Masina

78'

S. Cosgrove← L. Jutkiewicz

78'

I. Šunjić← G. Gardner

80'

A. Gray← K. Sema

80'

J. Ngakia← João Pedro

80'

A. Gray↳ J. Ngakia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBirmingham

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots14

5Corners5

9Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots14

9On Target1

2Off Target8

1Blocked5

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

468Total Passes297

371Accurate Passes218

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3