Waterford 2–1 Bohemians: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bohemians

P. Amond 45' (pen)

C. Noonan 45'

D. Devoy 71'

6/20/2025

Premier Division · Round 20Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Waterford33%

×Draw24%

Bohemians43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchBohemians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.60

Waterford

1.38

Bohemians

1.60

Bohemians creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.63

1.57

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Waterford

1.53

Bohemians

1.63

allows per match

Waterford

1.57

Bohemians

1.23

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.77scores more than expected

finishing

Waterford+0.14scores more

Bohemians+0.77scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Bohemians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

57%

Waterford or Bohemians

76%

Draw or Bohemians

67%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

15%

Bohemians wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

75%

Waterford 2+ goals

40%

Waterford 3+ goals

16%

Bohemians 1+ goals

80%

Bohemians 2+ goals

47%

Bohemians 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

44%

Bohemians (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.23 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.53 + Bohemians defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bohemians attack 1.63 + Waterford defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Waterford scores more

33%

level

24%

Bohemians scores more

43%

Bohemians at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Noonan

Waterford · M

8.5

Match Events

40'

Adam McDonnell

45'

P. AmondPenalty

45'

C. Noonan

46'

J. Clarke← R. Brennan

57'

J. McManus← C. Whelan

58'

K. Buckley← R. Cornwall

71'

D. Devoy↳ R. Tierney

85'

K. White← J. Dempsey

85'

D. McMenamy← J. Olayinka

85'

M. Strods← N. Morahan

90+6'

Ben McCormack

90'

Dean McMenamy

90+2'

B. McCormack← C. Noonan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaterfordBohemians

Overview

43%Possession57%

17Total Shots16

9Corners7

10Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots16

7On Target5

7Off Target6

3Blocked5

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box9

Passing

43%Possession57%

277Total Passes386

184Accurate Passes293

66%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1