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Bohemians vs Waterford — Premier Division 2019

Bohemians
Bohemians
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Waterford
Waterford
A. Meekison 66'
S. McMullan 30' (OG)
P. Amond 45'
9/19/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 31Dalymount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bohemians59%
×Draw24%
Waterford17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians
1.72
Waterford
0.79

Bohemians creates 118% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bohemians
1.25
Waterford
0.92

allows per match

Bohemians
0.66
Waterford
2.18

finishing

Bohemians-0.25scores less
Waterford-0.04on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians ↓

Waterford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bohemians or draw
83%
Bohemians or Waterford
76%
Draw or Waterford
41%

Winning margin

Bohemians wins by 2+
34%
Waterford wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bohemians 1+ goals
82%
Bohemians 2+ goals
51%
Bohemians 3+ goals
25%
Waterford 1+ goals
55%
Waterford 2+ goals
19%
Waterford 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bohemians (draw refunded)
78%
Waterford (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 6 matches

Waterford away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.18 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians attack 1.25 + Waterford defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.72

Waterford attack 0.92 + Bohemians defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bohemians scores more
59%
level
24%
Waterford scores more
17%

Bohemians at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
A. MeekisonBohemiansBohemians · M
7.7

Match Events

12'
Connor Parsons
30'
S. McMullanOwn goal
45'
P. Amond
46'
D. Rooney← C. Parsons
56'
Josh Miles
66'
A. Meekison
67'
T. Coyle← J. Miles
75'
K. White← J. Dempsey
80'
M. Faal← J. Olayinka
80'
T. Lonergan← C. Noonan
88'
K. Buckley← A. Meekison
90+5'
Jordan Flores
90+4'
C. Whelan← D. James-Taylor

Possession

49%Bohemians

Shots

11Bohemians

Pass accuracy

51%Bohemians

Statistics

BohemiansWaterford
Overview
49%Possession51%
11Total Shots10
1Corners4
12Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots10
3On Target3
3Off Target4
5Blocked3
8Inside Box5
3Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
427Total Passes452
324Accurate Passes334
76%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Bohemians vs Waterford

Bohemians beat Waterford 2-1 in Premier Division on September 19, 2025.

Goals: S. McMullan (30' o.g.), P. Amond (45'), A. Meekison (66').

Waterford controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Dalymount Park in Dublin.