Bohemians 1–1 Waterford: Result & Stats

Bohemians

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Waterford

C. Whelan 72' (pen)

J. Mahon 35'

4/6/2026

Premier Division · Round 10Dalymount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bohemians59%

×Draw24%

Waterford17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BohemiansExpected goals in this matchWaterford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.79

Bohemians

1.72

Waterford

0.79

Bohemians creates 118% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.25

creates per match

0.92

0.66

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Bohemians

1.25

Waterford

0.92

allows per match

Bohemians

0.66

Waterford

2.18

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Bohemians-0.25scores less

Waterford-0.04on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians ↓

Waterford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bohemians or draw

83%

Bohemians or Waterford

76%

Draw or Waterford

41%

Winning margin

Bohemians wins by 2+

34%

Waterford wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bohemians 1+ goals

82%

Bohemians 2+ goals

51%

Bohemians 3+ goals

25%

Waterford 1+ goals

55%

Waterford 2+ goals

19%

Waterford 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bohemians (draw refunded)

78%

Waterford (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 6 matches

Waterford away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.18 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians attack 1.25 + Waterford defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.72

Waterford attack 0.92 + Bohemians defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bohemians scores more

59%

level

24%

Waterford scores more

17%

Bohemians at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Devoy

Bohemians · M

8.3

Match Events

30'

Senan Mullen

35'

J. Mahon↳ E. McLaughlin

46'

J. Flores← S. Mullen

46'

K. Long← J. Mahon

58'

R. Tierney← Z. Myers

58'

A. McDonnell← S. Diallo

58'

M. Strods← H. Vaughan

61'

Evan McLaughlin

62'

L. Heeney← E. McLaughlin

68'

C. Barrett← C. Noonan

72'

C. WhelanPenalty

76'

C. Byrne← C. Parsons

77'

J. Voilas← C. Carty

78'

J. Faria← D. McMenamy

79'

Dawson Devoy

81'

Ronan Mansfield

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BohemiansWaterford

Overview

74%Possession26%

24Total Shots8

2.40Expected Goals (xG)0.51

12Corners0

10Fouls11

Shots

24Total Shots8

9On Target1

8Off Target3

7Blocked4

14Inside Box2

10Outside Box6

Passing

74%Possession26%

601Total Passes226

516Accurate Passes133

86%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Premier Division: Bohemians 1–1 Waterford

Bohemians and Waterford drew 1-1 in Premier Division on April 6, 2026.

Goals: J. Mahon (35'), C. Whelan (72' pen).

Bohemians controlled possession (74%) and registered 24 shots to 8.

The match was played at Dalymount Park in Dublin.

Bohemians vs Waterford — Premier Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier Division: Bohemians 1–1 Waterford