Waterford 0–3 Bohemians: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Bohemians

C. Whelan 42' (pen), 34' (pen), 15'

3/7/2025

Premier Division · Round 5Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Waterford32%

×Draw24%

Bohemians45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchBohemians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.71

Waterford

1.41

Bohemians

1.71

Bohemians creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.53

creates per match

1.84

1.57

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Waterford

1.53

Bohemians

1.84

allows per match

Waterford

1.57

Bohemians

1.29

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Waterford+0.14scores more

Bohemians+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Bohemians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

55%

Waterford or Bohemians

76%

Draw or Bohemians

68%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

14%

Bohemians wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

76%

Waterford 2+ goals

41%

Waterford 3+ goals

17%

Bohemians 1+ goals

82%

Bohemians 2+ goals

51%

Bohemians 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

42%

Bohemians (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.53 + Bohemians defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bohemians attack 1.84 + Waterford defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Waterford scores more

32%

level

24%

Bohemians scores more

45%

Bohemians at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Whelan

Bohemians · F

8.9

Match Events

15'

C. Whelan

22'

Dayle Rooney

29'

Conan Noonan

34'

C. WhelanPenalty

41'

Stephen McMullan

41'

Kacper Radkowski

42'

C. WhelanPenalty

46'

R. Burke← K. White

46'

S. Glenfield← R. McDonald

59'

J. Olayinka← C. Noonan

60'

M. Pouwels← T. Lonergan

62'

Dean McMenamy

65'

R. Tierney← J. Clarke

66'

J. Mountney← K. Buckley

73'

B. McCormack← D. McMenamy

73'

C. Parsons← C. Whelan

77'

Adam McDonnell

86'

J. McManus← A. McDonnell

87'

L. Kavanagh← J. Flores

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaterfordBohemians

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots6

6Corners2

11Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots6

7On Target3

3Off Target0

1Blocked3

8Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

476Total Passes332

343Accurate Passes208

72%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0