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Tianjin Teda vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2026

Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
Yang Liyu 88'
F. Acheampong 80'
M. Diagne 61' (pen)
N. Jelavić 85'
9/27/2017Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tianjin Teda56%
×Draw22%
Guizhou Zhicheng23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Teda
1.96
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.17

Tianjin Teda creates 68% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tianjin Teda
1.45
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

Tianjin Teda
1.34
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.47

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw
77%
Tianjin Teda or Guizhou Zhicheng
78%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
44%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
33%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
86%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
58%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
31%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
69%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
33%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
71%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 121 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.45 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.96

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more
56%
level
22%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
23%

Tianjin Teda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
F. AcheampongTianjin TedaTianjin Teda · F
8.4

Match Events

46'
Fan Yunlong← Chang Feiya
47'
Wei Du
54'
Yuefeng Bai
61'
M. DiagnePenalty
62'
Mbaye Diagne
68'
Wang Fan← Iminjan Ilhamjan
69'
Tianyi Qiu
75'
Mario Suárez
80'
F. Acheampong↳ Hui Jiakang
82'
Liang Xueming← Min Junlin
85'
N. Jelavić↳ Liang Xueming
88'
Yang Liyu↳ J. Obi Mikel
90+1'
Li Yuanyi← F. Acheampong
90+4'
Wang Qiuming← Yang Liyu

Possession

51%Tianjin

Shots

13Tianjin

Pass accuracy

52%Tianjin

Statistics

TianjinGuizhou
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots5
6Corners0
22Fouls23
Shots
13Total Shots5
4On Target4
6Off Target1
3Blocked0
10Inside Box2
3Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
381Total Passes364
303Accurate Passes273
80%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
22Fouls23
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Tianjin Teda vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Tianjin Teda beat Guizhou Zhicheng 3-1 in Super League on September 27, 2017.

Goals: M. Diagne (61' pen), F. Acheampong (80'), N. Jelavić (85'), Yang Liyu (88').

Tianjin Teda controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Tianjin.